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「百利宫官网赌场」英国内阁办公室前部长:中国应该关心脱欧吗?

发布时间: 2020-01-09 10:13:43   |  人气: 2318

「百利宫官网赌场」英国内阁办公室前部长:中国应该关心脱欧吗?

百利宫官网赌场,英国内阁办公室前部长奥立弗. 莱特文:中国应该关心脱欧吗?

奥立弗 · 莱特文(Oliver Letwin)

中国应该关心脱欧吗?

Should China Care about Brexit?

“当英国公众投票决定脱离欧盟时,我在政府的任期也结束了。我当时是“留欧派”。卡梅伦、我及其他许多人被赶下台,新政府上台来执行英国选民离开欧盟的决定。”

“公平地说,这是英国政治史上最混乱、最不规范的政治进程之一。这段历史被书写出来会对世界其他国家有很大的启发,关于如何不去做一些事情。”

“我连夜飞了几千英里来到这里面对你们,讨论英国脱欧对中国与欧盟以及与英国关系的影响,而我却在说,我不认为它会带来太大的影响。”

“英国脱欧会发生,然后过去,你们可能不会发现有多么大的差别。剩下的最大的问题,就是如何让东西方去适应权力制衡与经济实力制衡的巨大转变。

我们需要找到一条途径,美国与亚洲,特别是与中国达成和解,避免冲突,和平共处。”

※ 以下是演讲内容记录:

很高兴被邀请来到这个下午的环节。

首先我要说的是,脱欧对我自己的生活产生了相当大的影响,在戴维·卡梅伦(David Cameron)执掌英国的2010年至2016年期间,我参与了政府工作,管理政府的决策机构。

当时我的另一个角色是国家安全委员会的成员。在那段时间里,我对一个更广泛的问题越来越感兴趣,那就是我们这个世界作为一个整体发生了什么。

由于经常去中国、印度访问和做研究,我越来越意识到世界经济和全球实力从西方向东方转移的重要问题。

当英国公众投票决定脱离欧盟时,我在政府的任期也结束了。我当时是“留欧派”。卡梅伦、我及其他许多人被赶下台,新政府上台来执行英国选民离开欧盟的决定。

我接受了这个结果。我也找到一个非常好的方式来利用自己的时间,就是去思考在世界历史上在过去很长时间里,东西方之间实力和经济的制衡问题。

所以我加入了一个研究机构,有了一个团队。我们正在写一本书,讨论西方应该如何看待权力和经济实力的转移。我很乐意这样做,也非常享受不用再主动参与政府事务的日子。

但我仍然是英国议会的成员。大约18个月前,我发现英国脱离欧盟的过程并不顺利。从那时起,我不得不花费大量的时间来研究如何应对议会中的这种形势。

我认为,直白地说, 这是英国政治史上最混乱、最不规范的政治进程之一。事实上,我认为当这段历史被书写出来的时候,它会对世界上的其他国家有很大的启发,关于如何不去做一些事情。

今天我来到这里,思考这两个问题之间是否存在某种联系,即地缘政治和地缘经济、从西方向东方转移的问题以及英国脱欧的问题。

我想如果你去问大多数英国人,或者大多数欧洲人,问他们认为这两件事之间有什么联系吗?他们可能会说不。

我们非常关注英国脱欧过程中的所有细节,这是非常复杂的,因为这是历史上第一次一个国家主动从贸易体系中脱离出来。而且这不只是一个贸易体系,而是一个意义深远的有着千丝万缕关联体系的法律秩序。

在欧盟,他们非常担心英国脱欧可能对欧盟造成的损害。但我认为没有人真正在谈论这是否在某种程度上影响了地缘政治以及影响东西方之间的关系。

贸易关系与政策会变

如果英国脱欧最终发生的话,显而易见会有一些结果产生。

首先,自英国加入欧盟以来的许多年里,英国政府一直没有制定基于全球贸易关系的全球贸易政策。

过去这些年来,中英的贸易关系是通过欧盟来进行的。如果英国脱离欧盟,情况当然会改变。从那时起,英国将必须有自己的全球贸易政策,并将自己进行全球贸易谈判。

因此,举例来说,如果将来中英之间有自由贸易协定,将是英国和中国之间的直接的双边关系,而不是欧盟和中国之间,当然,中国也会单独的和欧盟签署自由贸易协定。中国已经有了这种自由贸易协定,例如和挪威。类似的,还有瑞士。

欧盟与其他国家的关系会变

从东西方关系的角度来看,第二个明显的变化是,英国退出欧盟将对欧盟与世界其他国家关系的态度产生一定影响。

过去50年来,英国一直是一个高度开放的经济体,我们的政策在历届不同政党的政府领导下,一直是促进开放全球自由贸易。因此,在欧盟内部关于欧盟与中国、印度、美国等的贸易关系的所有讨论和争论中,英国一向主张开放、自由化和自由贸易。我们通常是德国和一些北欧国家的盟友。

在争论的另一方,法国和地中海国家在开放和自由贸易方面要谨慎得多。很明显,英国离开欧盟,这种平衡将会改变。欧盟可能会变得更具贸易保护主义色彩。

但我不认为人们应该高估这种影响。

英国是欧洲最大的国家之一,是欧洲最大的经济体之一,但它仍只是28个欧洲经济体中的一个。当它离开的时候,欧盟会有所改变,但不会在一夜之间发生巨大改变。

我不认为中国和欧盟之间的贸易关系、贸易政策或自由贸易谈判会因为英国脱欧而受到巨大影响。

中英贸易协议不会变

接下来,我们来讨论中英直接贸易关系的性质问题,以及我们可能与中国达成的双边的自由贸易协定的形式。

未来中国最终与欧盟签署的协议或双方的贸易政策会有多大不同?

我认为,事实上,答案是它不太可能有很大的不同。你可能会觉得奇怪,事实上,我们中的一些人也会觉得奇怪。

但是当英国离开欧盟的第一天,我们所有的规则都会和前一天一样。我们已经立法,以确保所有的规则,在我们离开欧盟后的第一天仍然有效。

我们的任何规定都只会逐渐改变。

我们贸易的一大部分仍将是与欧盟的。为了出口到欧盟,我们将不得不采用相同的产品标准,也就是我们目前正在采用的标准,如果欧盟的标准变化,我们也需要去配合。

因此,我们绝大部分贸易政策中的规则,很可能都和欧盟非常相似,并将持续如此。我们不再受制于欧盟的法规,但我们采用与欧盟非常相似的法规,在商品还有服务方面都是如此。

伦敦金融城是欧洲最重要的金融中心,也是世界三大金融中心之一。为了持续发挥它的重要作用,那些设在伦敦的公司需要能够继续从伦敦开展欧洲业务。只有当伦敦的金融服务监管协议被承认等同于欧盟的规定的时候,他们才能做到这一点,就像欧盟承认纽约证券交易委员会的规定等同于欧盟的规定一样。

因此,我们的金融服务法规也不太可能与欧盟的金融服务法规大相径庭。

所以我的观点是,实际上,就贸易关系的性质而言,随着我们的发展,尽管这将是一种直接的关系,一种不再通过欧盟而与中国产生的直接的双边关系, 但实际上,它很可能是非常相似的。

我不想让你们失望,我连夜飞了几千英里来到这里面对你们,讨论英国脱欧对中国与欧盟以及与英国关系的影响,而我却在说,我不认为它会带来太大的影响。

最终,我还是要说,我认为英国脱欧的整个过程结束时,它极有可能最终与欧盟谈判达成一个非常深入的自由贸易协定,与它作为欧盟的一部分所拥有的贸易协定非常相似。

因此,我认为,英国仍然是一个很有吸引力的地方,去吸引中国企业投资,以便出口到欧盟,目前就是有很多这样的情况在发生着。

我认为,英国作为欧盟出口商投资目的地的吸引力不太可能发生巨大变化。

欧盟和英国应该考虑什么?

在经历英国脱欧的过程中,欧盟和中国实际上应该考虑的是什么?特别是从与中国乃至与整个亚洲的关系的角度来看,在脱欧的过程中,欧盟和英国应该考虑些什么?

我认为有一个非常明确的答案:对欧洲和英国来说,英国脱欧是一个很大的干扰,把大量的时间和精力浪费在内部事务上。这就好像花很多时间去研究上海是否会成为一个独立的国家,而不再是中国的一部分。这会耗费你非常大量的时间,干扰你去思考中国和世界关系。

同样的,在欧洲,特别是在英国,我们忧心于这些内部变化来干扰自己。

但历史的车轮是不断前行的。

事实上,世界上正在发生的事情是,现在的中国,以及很可能不久之后的印度,就像几千年前曾经的那样,将会产生世界一半的GDP,并成为极其重要的经济和地缘政治主体。

那个仍认为自己在地缘政治中扮演着霸权角色的美国,已经崛起的中国和正在崛起的印度这些新兴大国,各国之间应该如何实现和平共处呢?

这个问题对我们所有人来说才是真正的问题,为了中国的繁荣,为了美国的繁荣,为了欧盟和英国的繁荣以及人民的福祉。

最终,除了气候变化,最能决定我的孩子和孙子们是否能过上幸福和富裕的生活的是,在未来的50年、60年、70年里,世界是否能够实现和平共处。

这并不取决于英国的脱欧,也不取决于我们如何解决其中涉及的问题。这取决于我们如何解决东西方之间的关系。

部分原因是英国脱欧分散了人们的注意力,部分原因是历史的发展。西方——特别是欧洲对东方的关注严重不足。

目前欧洲人考虑这个问题的层面不对。因为他们还没有接受世界正在改变的现实,他们必须找到一种方法来面对这个问题,才能产生和平共处的基础。

我有一种糟糕的感觉,就像二十世纪初,当德国崛起的时候,当时占世界主导地位的英国,非常不愿意让德国展现它的经济实力。

还有另一个令人不安的,那就是在1900年代,德国和英国都没有注意到美国实际上已经成为世界上最大的经济体。

非常的相似。

如果你把今天的世界霸主美国想成当时的英国,你把逐渐走向主导地位的中国想成1900年的德国,再把印度想成当时没人注意但逐步上升的美国,在1900年和2019年之间简直是历史的重现。

我们都知道1914-1918年是怎么结束的。那不是一个很好的结局。

所以我的观点是,与其关注英国脱欧,欧盟和英国都需要关注的是,欧洲人如何利用我们对美国的影响力,在美国和中国、印度之间调解矛盾,以一种对美国、中国和印度都有利的方式重塑全球体系——这样我们才能实现和平共处。

所以,我要告诉你们的是, 英国脱欧会发生,然后过去,你们可能不会发现有多么大的差别。实际上,没有人会注意到最终的差别,除了在英国国内这段非常困难的政治过渡阶段。

剩下的最大的问题,就是如何让东西方去适应权力制衡与经济实力制衡的巨大转变。

我们需要找到一条途径,美国与亚洲,特别是与中国达成和解,避免冲突,促进和平共处。

谢谢。

I’m very delighted to have been asked to come this afternoon. We‘ve had technical discussion about Brexit upstairs. I want to talk in a wider way about it.

The first thing I should explain is that it‘s had a quite significant effect on my own life, in the administration of David Cameron that ran Britain from 2010 to 2016. I was involved in the government, in trying to run the policy making apparatus of the government.

And one of my roles at that time was to be a member of our national security council. And during that time, I became increasingly interested in a much wider question of what was happening to our world as a whole.

And I became as a result of a visits here and to India, and work that we did together on these issues, increasingly aware of the fundamental importance of the shift from west to east in global economics and in global power.

My time in government was brought to an end when the British public voted to leave the EU. I myself campaigned to remain. Mr. Cameron and I and many others were removed from government, and the new government came in to implement the decision of the British electorate to leave the EU.

And I accepted that result. And I decided that a good way to use my time was to reflect on these wider issues of the balance of power and economics across a long time, in world history, between east and west.

And so I became involved in a research institute, to have a team. We‘re writing a book, to try to discuss how the west should view that shift of power, and of economic power. And I was happily doing this and very much enjoying no longer having to participate very actively in the government.

But unfortunately, I remained a member of our parliament and about eighteen months ago, it became clear that this process of the EU being left by Britain, Britain Brexiting, was not going smoothly. And since then, I have unfortunately, had to spend quite a lot of my time trying to work on what to do about that situation in parliament.

And I think it‘s fair to say that this has been one of the messiest and least well conducted, political processes in British political history. And in fact, I think when the history books are written, it will be quite instructive for the whole rest of the world, about how not to do something.

However, the fact that I’m here today has made me reflect on whether there is some connection between these two concerns, concerned with the geopolitics and geoeconomics and the shift from west to east and the question of Brexit.

And I think if you went to most people in the UK, or indeed most people in Europe, and you ask them that question, is there any relationship between these two things? They would probably say no.

We‘re very preoccupied with all the details of, the process of Brexit, which is enormously complicated because it is the first time in history when a country has been removing itself from a trade block. And it’s not just a trade block. It‘s a profound legal order, and with a huge number of different relationships. So we are very concerned in the UK with that.

And in the EU they‘re very concerned with the damage that they fear that Brexit may do to the EU. But I don’t think anybody really is talking about whether this somehow effects geopolitics and the relationship between the east and the west.

And the first thing I should say is that there‘s some obvious results of Brexit it if indeed it does finally happen.

And the first is that for many, many years since the UK joined the EU, global trade policy on global trade relationships have not been conducted by the UK government. They‘ve been conducted by the EU commission. So whereas china’s trading relationship with the US is conducted with the US government, not at the moment, a very easy relationship.

The relationship between china and the UK is has of course, over these years, being conducted through the EU. And if the UK leaves the EU, that situation, of course, changes. From that point onwards, the UK will have to have its own global trading policy, and it will conduct its own global trade negotiations.

And so for example, if there is in the future, a free trade agreement between china and the UK, will be a direct bilateral relationship between the UK and china and not between the EU and china, although of course, they may separately be a free trade agreement between the EU and china. You already have free trade arrangements, for example, with Norway. It will be somewhat similar to that arrangement, or indeed, with Switzerland.

That is a change. I don‘t think it’s a very major change.

The second obvious change from the point of view of east west relationships is that the removal of the UK from the EU will have some effect on the attitude of the EU to its relationship with the rest of the world.

The UK has traditionally been, over the last fifty years, a highly open economy and our policy under successive governments of different political parties has been to promote open global free trade. And so in all the discussions and arguments within the EU about the EU’s trading relationships with china with India or indeed, while we‘re at it, with the United States. The UK has always been a voice in favor of openness and liberalization and a free trade. And in that we’re normally been allies of Germany and some of the Scandinavian countries.

And often on the other side of the argument, the French and the Mediterranean countries have been much more cautious about opening up and liberalizing trade. So clearly, when the UK leaves the EU, that balance is going to alter. And it may be that the EU becomes slightly more protectionist.

But again, I don‘t think one should overestimate that effect.

The UK is one largest European countries, one of the largest European economies, but it‘s still only one out of twenty eight European economies. When it removes itself, the EU will change somewhat. But it’s not going to change dramatically overnight.

I don‘t think that the trading relationship or the trade policy relationship, or the free trade negotiations between china and the EU are going to be hugely affected by the UK removing itself from the EU.

Then we come to the question of the nature of the direct trading relationship between the UK and china and the shape of any free trade arrangement, which we might make with china bilaterally?

How different is that likely to be from whatever china signs up eventually with the EU, or the trade policy, that at the moment has on each side of that relationship?

And I think, again, actually, when you think about it, the answer is it‘s not likely to be very different. It may seem strange to you, and indeed, it seems strange to some of us.

But when the UK leaves the EU, the day after, all our regulations will be the same as the day before. Our parliament has already, we have legislated to ensure that all the rules which were in place on the day we leave are still in place the day after.

And only gradually will any of our regulations change.

A huge part of our trade, The UK trade will still be with the EU. In order to export to the EU, we will have to maintain the same product standards that we currently maintain, and they will have to match the EU standards as those standards change.

So our regulations, which is a great part of trade policy, are likely to be very similar to those of the EU on an ongoing basis. We won‘t be governed by the EU regulations, but we will adopt regulations very similar to those in the EU, and that applies to services as much as to goods.

The city of London is the most important financial center in Europe, and one of the three most important financial centers in the world. In order for it to continue to be of great importance, those firms that are located in London will need to be able to go on doing business from London in Europe. They will only be able to do that if the financial services regulatory arrangements in London are recognized as equivalent by the European Union in just the same way that the European Union recognizes the regulations of the sec in New York as equivalent to EU regulation. So it‘s very unlikely that even our financial services regulation will diverge very far from EU financial services regulation.

So my view is that actually, so far as the nature of the trading relationship is concerned, as we go forward, although it will be a direct relationship, a bilateral direct relationship with china instead of one done through the EU actually in substance, it‘s very likely to be very similar.

So I hate to disappoint you that after having flown some thousands of miles, overnight to come to address you and to talk about the effects of Brexit on the relationships that china has with the EU and with the UK, my main message to is, I don‘t think it will have very much effect on either of these things.

And finally, in that context, I should say that I think it‘s extremely likely that at the end of the whole Brexit process, the UK will end up by having negotiated with the EU a very deep free trade arrangement, which is very similar to the arrangement that it has as part of the EU single market.

So I think it will actually be the case that the UK remains about as attractive a place to locate investment from Chinese firms in order to export into the EU, and there‘s a good deal of that, that happens at the moment, as it is at present.

I don‘t think that the attractiveness of the UK is an investment vehicle for exporters into the EU is very likely to change dramatically either. This brings us to the question, what is it actually that the EU and china should be thinking about as we go through the process of Brexit. And in particular, what should the EU and the UK be thinking about as we go through the process of Brexit, from the point of view of the relationship with china and indeed with Asia as a whole.

And then I think there is a very clear answer. I think for Europe and for the UK, Brexit has been a major distraction. It has focused a great deal of time and effort on an internal affair. It‘s as if you were spending a great deal of time working out with whether shanghai was going to become a separate country, not part of china. This would occupy you for an enormous amount of time and distract you from thinking about the relationship between china and the world.

And in a similar way in Europe, and particularly in the UK, we have distracted ourselves by concerning ourselves with this internal shift.

But world history marches on.

And actually what‘s going on in the world is that china now, and very probably in the near future, India, are becoming again, as they were for thousands of years, half of the world’s GDP and enormously important, economic and geopolitical features.

And, the question of how we achieve a peaceful coexistence between the united states, which still sees itself as having a role of hegemony over geopolitics, and the emerging power, the already emerged power of china and the emerging power of India.

That question is the real question for all of us, for the prosperity of the Chinese, for the prosperity of the states, but also for the prosperity and wellbeing of the citizens of the EU and of the UK.

In the end, apart from issues like climate change, the thing that is most going to determine whether my children and my grandchildren are going to lead happy and prosperous lives is whether the world works out how to have peaceful coexistence over the next fifty, sixty, seventy years.

And that‘s not going to be depending on how Brexit goes, or exactly how we resolve the issues involved in it. It’s going to depend on how we resolve the great relationships between west and east.

And at the moment, partly because of the distraction of Brexit. And partly just because of the way history has gone. And the profound lack of attention to the east in the west, and in particular in Europe.

At the moment, Europeans are not thinking about this very much at all in the states they are thinking about. But they‘re thinking about it in a way which causes a real problem, because they haven’t yet got themselves to the point of accepting that the nature of the world is changing, and they have to find a way to deal with that, that creates the basis for peaceful coexistence.

I have the dreadful feeling that it‘s like the period at the beginning of the twentieth century, when Germany was on the rise and Britain, which was the dominant world power at the time, was very reluctant to allow Germany to express the power that it had economically.

And there‘s another uncomfortable parallel, which is that both the Germans and the British in 1900s, were failing to notice that the United States has become actually the biggest economy in the world while they weren’t looking.

Very similar positions.

If you think of what is today, the United States as Britain, the dominant world power, still, just, if you think of Germany in 1900s as equivalent to china, becoming the other dominant power. And if you think of, what was then the United States creeping up behind without anybody noticing as India, you have a very close parallel between 1900 and 2019.

And we all know how that ended in 1914-18. It was not a happy result.

And so my view is that rather than focusing on Brexit, what the EU and the UK both need to focus on is how the Europeans collectively can use the influence we can have over the united states, to broker solutions between the united states and china and India, that reshape the global system in a way that is comfortable for both the united states and for china and for India to live in. So that we can achieve a peaceful coexistence.

So, my message to you is Brexit actually will come and probably go and you probably won‘t really notice terribly much difference. And actually nobody will probably notice in the end terribly much difference, except that it’s a terribly difficult political transition in the UK.

What will remain is this big issue of how both sides of the world accommodate to a huge shift in the power balances and the economic power balances in the world.

And our task is to find a way through that, where the Europeans play a constructive role in enabling the United States to reach an accommodation with Asia, in particular with china, that avoids conflict and promotes peaceful coexistence.

Thank you!

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

奥立弗 · 莱特文:    

英国下议院议员;

内阁办公室前政府政策部长

自1997年以来,奥利弗爵士一直是西多塞特郡的议员。2010年起,他担任英国政府政策大臣,随后在戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)的联合政府中担任兰开斯特公国(Duchy of Lancaster)大臣。2015年大选后,他继续担任兰开斯特公国大臣,并全面掌管内阁办公室,直到2016年7月。2010年以前,他曾担任影子内政大臣、影子财政大臣、影子食品和农村事务大臣、保守党政策审议委员会主席。

现任英国中国中心副主席,列格坦研究所高级研究员,法拉第研究所高级顾问。他于2002年成为枢密院议员,并于2016年获封爵士。

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